10:35am - 11:20am Finding Patterns of Emergence
Monday Sep 15 - Room: Constitution A
Can scientific journals today tell us what technology will look like in the next five years? Can crowdsourcing methods better estimate when S&T milestones will be reached? The FUSE (Foresight and Understanding from Scientific Exposition) and ForeST (Forecasting Science and Technology) programs are trying to find out---by predicting technical emergence using information found in published scientific and patent literature and from aggregated human judgements. Join Dr. Dewey Murdick as he discusses the goals and insights of these programs, which are led by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), the high-risk, high-reward arm of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.